Drawing the Line Betting Analysis: Fight2Win 166

Fight2Win 165 is a submission-only grappling event taking place on March 13, 2021 in Austin, TX and streamed live on FloGrappling.

Betting Cut-off Time: 7PM EST


Rafael Lovato Jr. (-300) vs Gabriel Almeida (+250)

•  This match is GI

PROPS

Lovato Jr. by Submission (-105)

Lovato Jr.  by Decision (+125)

Almeida by Submission (+400)

Almeida by Decision (+275)

Almeida by decision has some value. Lovato may be overvalued under this ruleset. Almeida one of the most experienced competitors under F2W rules. As long as Lovato doesn’t steamroll, I can see Gabriel Almeida by decision.


William Tackett (-250) vs Manuel Ribamar (+210)

•  This match is NOGI

PROPS

Tackett by Submission (-150)

Tackett by Decision (+135)

Ribamar by Submission (+400)

Ribamar by Decision (+250)

Tackett ML. Bet Tackett straight up.


Joshua Cisneros (-130) vs Lucas Pinheiro (+100)

•  This match is GI

PROPS

Cisneros by Submission (+150)

Cisneros by Decision (+105)

Pinheiro by Submission (+200)

Pinheiro by Decision (+135)

This match is too close. Probably Cisneros by decision but no value on the lines.


James Puopolo (+125) vs Alexandre Ceconi (-155)

•  This match is GI

PROPS

Puopolo by Submission (+185)

Puopolo by Decision (+185)

Ceconi by Submission (+175)

Ceconi by Decision (+110)

Ceconi with the size and probably gets the decision. Would have bet Puopolo if it wasn’t for his inactivity and size disadvantage. Ceconi by Decision or Puopolo ML both may have value at anything over +150 if the line moves.

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